Google TPU Expert Call script

Here’s the hottest TPU news in town — and it’s all non-public information.

Welcome, readers.

It’s been a while since I’ve returned with a subscribers-only post.

Yesterday, Fubon published the following note, and here’s what it said:

“INCREASING COWOS NUMBERS. Sherman writes in 2026, based on our CoWoS model, we calculate and estimate total TPU production to be 3.1-3.2mn. TSMC’s current AP8 is already fully loaded, and phase 1 of its new AP7 is for Apple’s WMCM while phase 2 will not be ready until late 2026. In our earlier note, we mentioned that TSMC will start to outsource some mid-to-low end CoWoS products to ASE, but the outsourcing is limited to CPU and networking chips, and all the accelerators will remain at TSMC’s AP fabs. However, **from our recent checks with TSMC’s CoWoS suppliers, we think TSMC is now becoming aggressive in expanding its CoWoS capacity in 2027**. Based on our latest checks, TSMC’s in-house CoWoS capacity will reach 120k by the end of 2026, which is for 1Q27 production, and 140k by the end of 2027, compared to our earlier forecasts of 110k and 130k, respectively. With a more aggressive expansion plan in 2027, we think TSMC will also provide more capacity support for Broadcom and MediaTek, Google’s TPU partners. Although it is too early to talk about the CoWoS capacity allocation in 2027, **our checks suggest that total TPU volume may double to 5-6mn units in 2027**, including 5mn from Broadcom and potentially 1mn from MediaTek.”

However, the expert call my Chinese partner conducted yesterday suggests that Fubon’s projections may actually be on the conservative side.

No need for a long preface — let’s get straight to the point.